Contested Spaces in Mali: Justice, Security and the State

• In Event: Justice and Injustice in War

Abstract

While recent studies find violent conflict can increase the strength of judicial systems and trust in the state, this paper provides evidence for the opposite trend in the context of Mali’s current conflict. I argue the temporary loss of territorial control to rebel groups undermines trust in state judicial institutions, and resulting alternative mechanisms for judicial service provision become entrenched within local power hierarchies. The analysis leverages Bayesian machine learning techniques to map government territorial control from 2011-2020. A regionally-representative key informant questionnaire is utilized to calibrate a spatial and temporal Hidden Markov Model (HMM) mapping control levels across the conflict. Interpolating this dataset of control values with three rounds of Afrobarometer survey data points to a robust correlation between levels of territorial occupation by rebel groups and deteriorating trust in the state judiciary, as well as worsened perceptions of judicial corruption. Qualitative case studies in formerly jihadist-occupied areas trace shifts in community attitudes towards judicial service provision and indicate that national-level initiatives do not percolate to conflict-affected periphery regions in ways that meaningfully repair trust.

Author

• Zoë Gorman, Princeton University