Charting a New Course: Taiwan's New Southbound Policy in the Wake of China's BRI

• In Event: The Foreign Policies of Small States

Abstract

In the evolving geopolitical landscape of East Asia, Taiwan's New Southbound Policy (NSP) emerges as a pivotal element in its foreign policy toolkit, especially when considered against the backdrop of China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This paper delves into the NSP, initiated in 2016, as a significant shift in Taiwan's foreign policy strategy, aiming to recalibrate its economic and diplomatic engagements in the region. This redirection in Taiwan's international approach, focusing on 18 countries primarily from Southeast Asia and Oceania, reflects a nuanced attempt to diversify economic partnerships and enhance Taiwan's regional influence amidst China's growing global presence. However, as existing literature pays little attention to Taiwan’s agenda in pursuing its NSP, we pose the question: Was the NSP launched in response to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?

The importance of this study lies not only in its geopolitical implications but also in its contribution to the field of foreign policy analysis. While considerable attention has been paid to China's BRI and its impact on regional politics, there remains a substantial gap in scholarly discourse regarding Taiwan's strategic motivations and objectives behind the NSP. This gap is particularly evident in understanding how Taiwan's foreign policy is being reshaped in response to regional developments and global power shifts. Existing literature has yet to fully explore the NSP's role as a comprehensive and proactive foreign policy initiative, rather than merely a reactive measure to China's regional strategies.

To address this gap, our research adopts a process-tracing methodology, examining primary sources from Taiwanese government entities, including the Office of Trade Negotiations and the Executive Yuan, alongside inputs from President Tsai's cabinet. The forthcoming addition of interviews with Taiwanese officials, policy experts, and business leaders will provide deeper insights into the strategic considerations driving the NSP. This multifaceted approach offers a comprehensive understanding of Taiwan’s foreign policy ambitions, unveiling the nuanced perspectives and rationale behind the NSP's formulation and execution. Moreover, the study also incorporates external viewpoints, including Taiwanese media coverage and perspectives from NSP critics, to present a balanced and thorough analysis of the policy's broader regional and international implications.

Contrary to common interpretations, our findings suggest that Taiwan’s NSP is not a mere countermeasure to China’s BRI. It represents a sophisticated and deliberate strategy by Taiwan to assert its soft power and strengthen regional connections, while simultaneously diminishing its economic reliance on China. This strategic divergence from the BRI's infrastructure and hard power focus to the NSP's emphasis on human-centric initiatives illustrates Taiwan's preference for soft power tactics in its foreign policy and economic engagements. This paper argues that the NSP is representative of Taiwan’s pursuit of strategic autonomy. It reflects a calculated response to the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, shaped significantly by China’s BRI. The NSP's focus on diversifying economic partnerships and enhancing soft power is a testament to Taiwan's adaptive foreign policy in an increasingly complex international landscape. The findings in this paper contribute to an increased understanding of Taiwan's foreign policy strategies, the regional response to China's growing influence, and the nuanced dynamics of international relations in the Asia-Pacific.

Authors

• Sarah Cao, United States Military Academy at West Point

• Merlin Boone, United States Military Academy