The Repression-Dissent Nexus Abroad: Democracy and Exile Activism

• In Event: Protest, Repression and Violence

Abstract

There is a long-standing argument that inclusion can moderate political parties, whereas political exclusion and repression can radicalize movements and encourage armed resistance. However, in response to repression, political dissidents often leave the country, trying to escape the iron fist of the regime. Can exile to democratic countries mitigate the repression-dissent nexus? Drawing on a variety of primary and secondary sources, the analysis investigates this in the case of the Tunisian Ennahdha and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and combines deductive and inductive reasoning. First, I test whether exile has any distinctive effects on groups by examining whether mechanisms of moderation and radicalization were present domestically and abroad. Second, I use process-tracing to inductively uncover the mechanisms through which the two Islamist groups avoided a turn towards armed resistance. I argue that exile can mediate the radicalizing effects of repression if the cost of violent resistance remains high in the host state, and if emigration allows organizations to restore their capacity for nonviolent action, promote internally democratic processes, and focus on rebuilding rather than revenge. This can happen both in established democracies and in less democratic countries. The article bridges the literatures on repression, Islamist movements and migration, challenging the argument that democracies have uniquely moderating effects, and calling for a greater recognition that both repression and organizational dynamics transcend national borders.

Author

• Ioana Emy Matesan, Wesleyan University