Rolling the Dice: Evolving American Support for Geoengineering

• In Event: Energy, Politics, and the Public

Abstract

In January 2024 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) reported that 2023 was the hottest year or record, with global temperatures exceeding the previous hottest year (2016) by a margin of .27 degrees F. The historic warmth of 2023 follows a period where the 10 hottest years since 1850 occurred in the last decade. The record temperatures of the last decade have been accompanied by intensified climate related disasters such as historic wildfires, flooding and drought (IPCC, 2023). The mounting evidence of climate change has occurred as government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have struggled to achieve standards necessary to limit the most harmful impacts of warming. Given the mounting evidence of climate change and limited success in mitigation efforts, are Americans becoming more amenable to geoengineering alternatives that could potentially counter negative aspects of climate change, but also pose significant risks of unintended damages?

In this study American support for geoengineering options is examined through a series of national level probability based samples of Americans between 2010 and 2024. These surveys include items that measure support for geoengineering options such as solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, as well as measures of confidence in the ability of governments to limit climate change. The presence of these measures allow for examination of shifts in support for geoengineering options among Americans over the last 14 years, and the impact of factors such as confidence in mitigation, concerns regarding climate change and individual level characteristics (e.g.: gender, age, partisanship) on evolving acceptance of geoengineering approaches.

Author

• Christopher P. Borick, Muhlenberg College