Understanding the US Public’s Nuclear Weapons Policy Preferences

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security Theory and Concepts

Abstract

Unlike many policy areas, nuclear weapons and deterrence policy decisions are not always subject to public influence. However, since the use of nuclear weapons in 1945, citizens around the world have played a role in nuclear weapons policy. Through social movements and voting, the public can pressure states to adopt nonproliferation and disarmament policies or maintain or improve the existing nuclear weapons stockpiles. For example, In the US, the Nuclear Weapons Freeze Campaign successfully convinced President Ronald Reagan to change nuclear policy and influenced Soviet President Gorbachev to end testing (Wittner n.d.). Following public opinion, in 2022, the Dutch parliament voted to send a delegation to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons’ Meeting of States Parties (ICAN 2022). On the other hand, the public has expressed support for nuclear weapons and deterrence policies and views them as important to the US’s role in the world. These preferences for different policies are likely influenced by the public’s perceived risk of nuclear war or other major national security risks, as well as broader foreign policy values and beliefs of the public.

Exploring these policy preferences and how these preferences are shaped by risk perceptions and broader national security values is key, particularly at a time when nuclear weapons are once again becoming relevant to public discourse on foreign policy. Events such as Russia’s recent nuclear threats related to the war in Ukraine and China’s modernization efforts have an impact on the perceived value of nuclear weapons policies. This leads to the following question: How do nuclear war risk perceptions and the value of deterrence impact the US public’s preference for different nuclear weapons policy options, such as improving and spending more on the stockpile or signing arms control treaties?

Using US public opinion data spanning from 1993 to 2023 from the Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis’ National Security Survey and a timeline of nuclear security events across the same time period, this paper explores the US public’s preferences for nuclear weapons policy changes, such as signing arms control treaties, increasing spending on nuclear weapons programs, testing, among others.

Author

• Kaitlin Peach, University of Oklahoma