The Structure of International Treaty Diffusion

• In Event: Understanding the Ties That Bind States: Institutions, Networks, and Community

Abstract

A country's decision to ratify an international treaty is, in part, a function of the number and type of previous ratifiers, and its expectations regarding future ratifiers. The timing and sequence of signatories and ratifiers, as well as the textual context helps understand the nature of this process. We analyze the content and the signing/ratification patterns of 1,500 multilateral treaties during 1945-2017, to classify treaties into distinct groups and infer diffusion patterns within these groups. We use a networks algorithm to estimate the latent diffusion networks and to uncover connections between states. To understand the complex structure of treaty diffusion, we derive and test several hypotheses on the determinants of norm diffusion within different areas of international cooperation. Our statistical results shed light on both the covariates that associate with diffusion ties between countries, and the forms of interdependence that characterize treaty diffusion networks. Lastly, we draw upon methods of network comparison to understand the ways in which different diffusion networks are similar and different.

Authors

• Ki Eun Ryu, University of Iowa

• Frederick J. Boehmke, University of Iowa

• Olga Chyzh, University of Toronto

• Zhanna Terechshenko, New York University

• Bruce Desmarais, Pennsylvania State University

• Jeffrey J. Harden, University of Notre Dame