Climate Change and Democracy

• In Event: Effects of Climate Change and External Climate Policies on Domestic Politics

Abstract

The world is increasingly experiencing the destabilizing effects of climate change. At the same time, there has been a documented trend of democratic decline around the world. We argue that compounding climate shocks create conditions under which democratic backsliding and breakdown are more likely. Climate change leads to increased frequency and severity of natural disasters and weather shocks, which have economic and social consequences that increase civil unrest. Governments’ capacity to address grievances declines as shocks compound, making anti-democratic measures a more likely response. To test this argument, we track democratic decline episodes after the cold war. We test if deviations from average temperature and recent experiences with natural disasters are associated with an increased likelihood of a country experiencing democratic backsliding or breakdown. We find that both climate shocks are strongly associated with democratic backsliding, and that compounding experiences with natural disasters are associated with democratic breakdown. These findings have important implications for a world increasingly embroiled in both trends; understanding how they are related is important for addressing both

Authors

• Christina J. Schneider, University of California, San Diego

• Emilie Marie Hafner-Burton, University of California, San Diego

• Austin Beacham, Georgia Insitute of Technology