Impacts of Climate Change on Public Perceptions across Africa and Latin America

• In Event: Effects of Climate Change and External Climate Policies on Domestic Politics

Abstract

How does climate change impact public perceptions of leaders, governance, and political systems in the developing world? We provide a comprehensive assessment of this question employing newly-harmonized data from multiple rounds of afrobarometer and latinobarometer surveys, combined with high resolution measures of climatic impact derived from novel advances in machine learning. Employing a wide range of estimation techniques we identify significant impacts of shocks in the form of temperature, precipitation, and drought on self-reported measures of economic well-being, perceptions of government effectiveness, and long-run support and trust in democratic institutions. We also document important sources of heterogeneity across these estimates and estimate the longevity and cumulative impact of climate shocks on political perceptions. Preliminary analysis suggests further that climate shocks are positively associated with electoral turnout and anti-incumbent voting behavior.

Authors

• Amanda Kennard, Stanford University

• Carlos Felipe Balcazar, New York University

• Brandon de la Cuesta, Stanford University