Presidential Rhetoric, Public Opinion, Mass Shootings, and State Legislation

• In Event: Presidential Rhetoric and Public Opinion

Abstract

In 2020, the United States experienced a record 622 mass shooting events - equaling almost two mass shootings for every day of the year and more than double the amount of incidents in 2014 (Gun Violence Archive, 2021). That was not an exception, with a total of 532 mass shooting events occurring in the U. S. in the first three quarters of 2021 (Gun Violence Archive, 2021). Mass shootings have been described as an "American phenomenon", marked by the stark contrast to other countries. For instance, Australia has not had a mass shooting incident since strict gun laws were enacted 1996 in the aftermath of a mass shooting that left thirty-five dead (Jose, 2021). The development of government policy and legislation are often attributed to some social problem which demands action (Oliver and Barlow, 2005).

This study explores the relationship between the President, public opinion, state-level legislation, and the media in regard to mass-shootings in America from 2015 through 2019. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models in conjunction with Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis were used on a novel dataset including mass shooting fatalities, media coverage, state-level legislation and public opinion across 53 time periods. We also perform a secondary analysis examining specific, high impact shootings' effects on presidential speech, state-level legislation, and public opinion. Findings demonstrate that Presidential rhetoric seems unresponsive to fatalities, media, or public opinion, while state-level legislation responds to media coverage and public opinion. Our secondary suggests that presidents are highly responsive to high impact shootings that have been nationalized rather than overall fatalities, while state legislatures may be more affected by internal dynamics. In total, the findings suggest a process that has both national and state-level dynamics, and that is driven largely by specific shootings, rather than the general problem of "mass shootings."

Authors

• Joshua Hill, The University of Southern Mississippi

• Iliyan Iliev, University of Southern Mississippi