Contractual Security: Causes and Consequences of Wagner Mercenaries in Africa

• In Event: Proxy War

Abstract

The arrival of the Wagner Group in Africa signals a shift towards a contractual security model and a departure from previous Western-endorsed security frameworks focused on governance. This trend has escalated violence against civilians (VAC) perpetrated by mercenaries and state security forces against their own populations. This paper explores the mechanisms behind this trend through data on government-perpetrated civilian deaths, surveys and qualitative fieldwork. Russian private military companies (PMCs) emphasize tactical results and coup-proofing for authoritarian leaders rather than the protection of civilians and their human rights. Meanwhile, agreements with these PMCs have driven international actors lobbying for democratic transitions into minor roles within the African security marketplace. By insulating the autocratic elite, these new alliances re-orient ententes with local militias and stakeholders of the natural resource sector, prompting a surge in indiscriminate violence against civilian communities. Time series data on government-perpetrated VAC in five African conflicts showcase this spike trajectory following the deployment of Russian mercenaries. Case studies of Mali and the Central African Republic trace how the mechanisms of autocratic security arrangements contribute to patterns of violence and elite retrenchment.

Author

• Zoë Gorman, Princeton University