Immigration without Mediation: Brazilians Reaction to an Influx of Venezuelans

• In Event: Migration Shocks: Bureaucrats, Citizens, and Migrants

Abstract

How does immigration shock affect natives' voting behavior? While many studies explore (a) natives' attitudes toward immigrants and (b) the electoral appeals of anti-immigrant parties, much less is known about how immigration directly affects the electoral performance of incumbents. I argue that an immigration influx will harm the incumbent because it is the citizens in the regions with immigration that will feel the impacts outlined by group threat theory. Exposure to immigration results in a change in voting behavior, which leads voters to punish the incumbent. This study examines the impact of Venezuelan immigration in 2018 on the electoral outcomes of the Brazilian Workers Party (PT). I rely on instrumental variable regression to causally identify the effect of the immigration shock and to show that it damaged the electoral performance of the PT in most elections that took place just after the shock occurred. My results provide additional empirical evidence that heightened levels of immigration can elicit a political backlash.

Author

• Raduan Eugenio Hussak van Velthem Meira