Hate to Lose More than Love to Win: Status Decline and Interstate Conflict

• In Event: Declining Powers and International Conflict

Abstract

While many scholars underscore the importance of status concerns in understanding a state's conflict behavior, there remains a limited understanding of the origins of such concerns. Little is known about why states experience these concerns and what contributes to status dissatisfaction. Previous scholarship emphasizes "status inconsistency" or the disparity between the status attributed to a state by the international community and the status the state believes it deserves. They often assume that a state’s expectations regarding status are grounded in its military and economic capabilities. Building on research in psychology and sociology, I argue that material capabilities are not the sole source of status anxiety or dissatisfaction. The experience of status decline in relevant communities also prompts dissatisfaction and concerns, thereby triggering aggressive actions. Using innovative network analytic techniques to identify underlying communities and testing my hypotheses on 200-year militarized interstate disputes, I demonstrate that a state's status decline in communities is significantly associated with an increased probability of militarized interstate disputes.

Author

• Seulah Choi, Northeastern University