The Effect of Non-Presidential Races on Voter Confidence

• In Event: Connections between Elections at Multiple Levels

Abstract

In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, suspicions regarding the integrity of American elections were stoked by politicians at all levels of government nationwide. Taking advantage of the high level of partisan animus, candidates have engaged in election denialism as a means of counteracting unfavorable election outcomes. Aside from serving the short-term interests of individual candidates, the perpetuation of narratives questioning the credibility of election results by political elites has made the public increasingly suspicious of institutions, politicians, and political processes.

Strong feelings of in-group favoritism and out-group hostility provide fertile ground for the acceptance of elite cues regarding the credibility of election results. But how do these cues influence voter confidence when voters are satisfied with election outcomes of other races? We examine the extent to which voters consider the outcomes of all races on the ballot in their assessment of the credibility of election results.

Despite sustained research examining the effect of the outcome of presidential elections on voter confidence, political science scholarship has overlooked the influence of non-presidential races. This study aims to fill this void in our understanding. Specifically, this study examines the impact of races for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, and state legislatures on voter confidence using pre-election and post-election survey data from the Cooperative Election Study (CES) Team Content in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Preliminary results suggest that non-presidential races have a modest effect on voter confidence.

Authors

• Nadine Suzanne Gibson, University of North Carolina at Wilmington

• Yul Min Park, University of Pittsburgh