Reconstruction Paradox: Hard Infrastructure Investment’s Impact Post Disaster

• In Event: Hazards, Disasters, and Their Aftermath

Abstract

Central governments regularly shoulder the burden of rebuilding damaged physical infrastructure, such as roads, dams, and bridges, which would otherwise deplete local municipalities’ limited budgets. Yet some have argued that damaged cities, towns, and villages receiving expensive gray infrastructure projects saw an acceleration of, rather than a decrease in, population decline after Japan’s 3/11 triple disaster. We test the impact of physical infrastructure investments on disaster recovery through the battery of social indicators including in-migration, out-migration, crime, suicide and divorce for 7 years after the shocks though OLS and panel data analysis. Our analysis demonstrates that reconstruction through physical investment reduced only crime but did not reduce suicide, divorce or out-migration rates. Further, higher levels of spending on physical infrastructure reconstruction actually reduced in-migration; confirming “the reconstruction paradox.” These findings bring with them policy recommendations for local, regional, and national governments facing shocks and disasters.

Authors

• Toshiaki Yoshida, Northeastern University

• Daniel Aldrich, Northeastern University