Unraveling Sub-Saharan Africa's Terrorism Trends: An Analysis (2018-2023)

• In Event: Poster Session: Dynamics of International Conflict and Competition

Abstract

The surge in terrorism incident trends in Sub-Saharan Africa poses a serious and significant threat to international security. Commonly attributed to a growing number of armed groups, this study challenges this narrative by scrutinizing terrorism dynamics. However, this study challenges prevailing assumptions by delving into the intricate details of terrorism dynamics between 2020 and 2023. Utilizing data from the Global Terrorism and Trends Analysis Center (GTTAC) Records of Incidents Database (GRID), this research offers a meticulous analysis of trends and tactics. Unlike prior studies reliant on outdated data, our research pioneers a meticulous assessment of terrorism trends and tactics and reveals a nuanced reality. The spike in terrorism incidents, significantly impacting global trends, primarily stems from specific entities—ISIS-affiliate branches, al-Shabaab, and key transnational armed groups. Contrary to the prevailing notion that the overall number of armed groups is the main driver, this study highlights the pivotal role played by these identified armed perpetrators. By pinpointing when, where, and how the terrorism trends occur, the research demonstrates that understanding Sub-Saharan Africa's terrorism landscape requires a focus on distinct actors and their adaptive tactics. This research underscores the need for nuanced policy responses tailored to address the specific dynamics of major terrorist actors operating in the region. In conclusion, this study provides a comprehensive and contemporary examination of Sub-Saharan Africa's terrorism trends, offering valuable insights for policymakers and scholars alike.

Author

• Pearl Matibe, George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government