The Interactive Effect of COVID and Hate Crimes on Vote Mode

• In Event: Local Political Context and Representation

Abstract

Voting by mail (VBM) reached record levels in 2020. While some evidence indicates the pandemic did not necessarily drive an increase in VBM, some who did VBM felt safer. Yet VBM might have felt like a “safer” option for a non-virus reason. Hate crimes spiked during the 2020 election, due in part to language like “China Virus”, but also events surrounding the George Floyd murder. The Brennan Center noted a surge of calls to the Election Protection hotline leading up to the 2020 election. Some analysts link this surge in part to Trump urging his supporters to “go into the polls and watch very carefully” (Wilder, 2021: 13). Thus, we argue VBM meant no one would “watch very carefully” as you cast your vote. We hypothesize that respondents residing in areas with high levels of hate crime and high levels of COVID are more likely to vote by mail. We test the hypothesis using the Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (2016, 2020) and FBI county-level hate crime data. We find the effects of county-level COVID rates on VBM were greater counties with high levels of hate crime, as compared to lower levels. Our findings also indicate there are difference in voting methods across racial and ethnic groups when it comes to VBM and early voting. Asian American and White respondents were less likely to early vote and more likely to choose VBM compared to Latinos and African Americans. Yet, there was no noticeable difference in voting method between Latino and African American respondents.

Authors

• Regina Branton, University of North Carolina Charlotte

• Martha E. Kropf, University of North Carolina at Charlotte