Sore Spots: How Past Repression Shapes Present Responses to Autocratic Coercion

• In Event: Putin's Russia and Autocratization

Abstract

How does a history of past repression affect communities' response to autocratic repression in the present day? While coercion is a fundamental tool that authoritarian leaders use to maintain political control, existing research raises unsettled questions about whether repression is more likely to inspire support or opposition from an autocrat's subjects. Within this ongoing discussion, we argue that the effect of an authoritarian regime's contemporary coercive behavior on public opinion depends in part upon the legacy of repressions. Communities that have experienced more repression in the past remain sensitive to state coercion and respond more negatively to present-day reminders of the state's coercive abilities. To examine this proposition, we examine the public opinion response in Russia following the repression of opposition-led, anti-corruption protests that took place across the country in March 2017. Using a unique survey dataset on public support for Putin within dozens of Russian cities alongside rich historical data on the intensity of Stalin-era repressions, we use a difference-in-differences design to show that the effects of present-day repression on regime support are conditional on past violence: crackdowns on anti-corruption protestors increased support for Putin in places with lower levels of past repression and lowered Putin's approval rating in cities where Stalin's repressions were most intense. Our study provides insights into the degree to which people in historically-repressed communities may harbor greater anxiety about and disapproval of autocratic repression, even when it is directed towards other targets.

Authors

• Quintin H. Beazer, Florida State University

• Noah Buckley, Trinity College Dublin

• Holger Lutz Kern, Florida State University