The Policymaker's Problem

• In Event: Modeling Institutions

Abstract

Evidence-based policymaking is characterized by the use of measured effects of an intervention or policy to choose future policy. Yet, the transportation of evidence from one setting to policy in another requires a policymaker to rely upon some formulation of external validity. In this paper, we draw together recent methodological advances with respect to characterization of external validity and empirical measures of policymakers' preferences with respect to evidence in order to explore the theoretical foundations of evidence-based policymaking. Specifically, we embed both features---a formalization of external validity and policymakers' revealed preferences---into a decision-theoretic model of a policymaker's use of evidence to set policy. This formulation highlights the relationship between methodological issues related to external validity and a policymaker's substantive policymaking decisions. Our results characterize the conditions under which evidence-based policymaking is incentive-compatible for the policymaker. We then extend the model to consider how an evidence producer's selection of interventions for evaluation affects the policymaker's choice to use evidence to make policy.

Authors

• Scott Tyson, University of Rochester

• Tara L Slough, New York University