Entrapment Risks and U.S. Public Support for Ally's Nuclear Development

• In Event: Nuclear Weapons Modernization and Proliferation

Abstract

A primary goal of the US nuclear security guarantee is to discourage its allies from pursuing independent nuclear weapons by providing increased security assurance. Despite consistent US opposition to nuclear proliferation by its allies, questions arise regarding sustained public support among the American public for their government's non-proliferation policies. This is particularly relevant if the risks of being attacked by an ally's adversary and involvement in unwanted wars intensify.

This article specifically focuses on the US-South Korea alliance and investigates the impact of security threats and entrapment risks on US public support for the ally's independent nuclear development. Despite the existence of the US nuclear security guarantee, public backing for independent nuclear acquisition in South Korea remains consistently high due to heightened security threats arising from North Korea's expanding nuclear capacity. The study conducted a survey experiment involving 1,657 Americans residing in South Carolina.

Key findings indicate that the support of US respondents for the US government's policy on South Korea's nuclear proliferation remains largely unaffected by security threats, whether to the US or South Korea. However, respondents are significantly influenced by entrapment concerns, such as the burdens resulting from the US commitment to supporting its ally. The likelihood of supporting South Korea's nuclear development increases when information suggests that North Korea's nuclear attacks could directly target the US, leading to entrapment without South Korea's independent nuclearization.

Authors

• Hye-Sung Kim, Appalachian State University

• Scott Huffmon, Winthrop University