Shape-Shifting Representation in Latin America

• In Event: Democracy, Representation and Exclusion

Abstract

The restoration of democracy in Latin America in the 1980s was expected to usher in an era of progress. However, today, the idea that democratic regimes will inevitably bring prosperity and equality appears to be unfounded. A large body of literature underscores how policy consistency can be essential to enhance citizens’ welfare. Utilizing a portfolio theory framework and data on political elites’ policy moods spanning seventeen Latin American countries during the period from 1996 to 2010, we introduce the concept of “policy-making beta” to gauge swings in politicians’ economic policy preferences. An estimated “policy-making beta” greater than one is an indicator of shape-shifting representation. Our findings indicate that in six countries – Argentina, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay, and Venezuela – political elites’ policy preferences were more volatile than the prevailing regional view. Next, we examine the relationship between our measure of shape-shifting representation and different political and economic outcomes, including policy volatility, the quality of political institutions, and economic well-being.

Authors

• Juan Pablo Micozzi, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico

• Pablo Martin Pinto, University Houston

• Sebastian M. Saiegh, University of California, San Diego