The Significance of Policy Confidence in Democratic Accountability

• In Event: Electoral Accountability

Abstract

Representative democracies hinge on voters' ability to evaluate candidates based on their policy stances and to make informed vote choices that reflect such stances. However, studies show that voters do not consistently hold politicians accountable for failing to represent their interests. I argue that individuals are more likely to hold politicians accountable on issues where they are more confident. By conducting a survey experiment within the 2022 Cooperative Election Study (N=1,000), I show first that confidence in policy knowledge is correlated with voters' vote preferences observationally, and then a causal relationship between the two variables through an experiment. Respondents who felt more confident were more likely to support an electoral challenger who shared their policy stance over an incumbent who did not share their stances. This study shows those who are more confident are more willing to vote for that position, incentivizing the politicians to be responsive to those who are confident.

Author

• Evan Eunsan Jo, Washington University in St Louis