Sino-Russian Cooperation in Counterbalancing the U.S.

• In Event: China and Its Neighbors

Abstract

This paper examines the multifaceted and evolving ties between China and Russia - two powers that increasingly coordinate across diplomacy, military affairs, energy trade, and currency finance. On the surface, this alliance challenges American interests and influence. However, the reality may be more nuanced. China and Russia share some strategic goals yet continue to harbor suspicions rooted in a history of competition and divergent political-economic models. Their partnership appears partly one of convenience, forged in response to shared grievances with the Western liberal order. Whether recent collaborations signify a durable counterbalance to the U.S. or merely tactical efforts to expand individual influence remains unclear.

This study will probe several questions: What binding factors and lingering tensions shape Sino-Russian relations? Do their diplomatic alignments and military maneuvers constitute hard balancing or strategic hedging? How vulnerable is this alliance to ruptures from energy market fluctuations, territorial disputes, or flare-ups along historical fault lines? Will tactical cooperation transition to strategic integration? Examining these issues can refine our understanding of great power dynamics between not only Russia and China, but with the U.S. as well. Rather than fixed alignment, we may uncover more tensions between alternatively competing and cooperating states. The research will clarify the extent of the Sino-Russian partnership and whether it fundamentally transforms the global landscape or leaves underlying power configurations intact.

This analysis explains a complex trilateral relationship within which each power maneuvers to advance its interests. Straightforward frameworks of alliance and opposition inadequately capture emerging realities. Outcomes remain contingent and uncertain - lending urgency for a more incisive investigation that provides probabilistic foresight to inform U.S. policy. Rather than reaction, a proactive strategy may enable the U.S. to preserve stability and influence amidst challenging powers that are becoming irrevocably intertwined.

Authors

• Wojtek M. Wolfe, Rutgers University

• Dongmin Lee, Nanyang Technological University