Can Satellites Solve Misperception? Maybe Not

• In Event: Competition and Conflict in Space

Abstract

This study conducts theoretical and case studies on whether satellites can solve problems such as information asymmetry, perception and misperception between countries, and how they can affect the outbreak of war between countries.
There have been various discussions about the causes of wars between countries. Although there is no consensus on the causes of wars between countries, the irrationality of policy makers, problems of perception and misperception, and information asymmetry have been pointed out as representative causes. One of the characteristics of these existing studies is that if the problem of information asymmetry related to war is resolved, the possibility of war breaking out is lowered.
The development of satellite technology for utilizing outer space, which has recently been recognized as a key area of security, is the subject of academic research on whether it can be a means of preventing war or conflict between countries. In particular, the space domain, which has been militarized from a security perspective to date, is mainly composed of information collection and communication capabilities for the collection and use of information and intelligence. In fact, as can be seen in the Russia-Ukraine war, the space assets of many Western private companies collected the activities of the Russian military in real time and provided them to Ukraine and other countries. On the other hand, even in the weaponization of space, concerns are limited to interference and sabotage between satellite assets.
So, assuming that satellite assets can enable the acquisition of information about the target country and solve the problem of information asymmetry, what will be the choice of the country or policy maker? In other words, what impact will obtaining information through satellite assets have on conflicts or wars between countries?
This study theoretically examines how the problem of information asymmetry through artificial satellites will be resolved on the patterns of war between countries. Since the United States actively utilized satellite assets during the Iraq War in 2003, satellite assets have become a key asset in terms of national security. There is limited research on how securing a country's satellite assets will affect international relations and the outbreak of war. Additionally, as the strategic competition between the U.S. and China expands outer space in the new space era, there is little discussion about what their competition to acquire satellite assets means in terms of security.
This study derives the impact of reconnaissance satellites on issues of war and peace based on international relations theory. Using this as a theoretical frame of reference, we examine theoretical discussions through the impact of satellite assets on war in the post-Cold War era. In addition, the space development competition between the United States and China is discussed. Overall, this study provides a theoretical exploration of the relationship between satellite assets and information uncertainty and a persuasive analysis of the current space race between the United States and China.

Authors

• Kyoungyun Ko

• Kun Sik Hong, Institute for National Security Strategy