Public Beliefs about Gender Representation in Legislative Bodies

• In Event: Using Surveys to Measure and Explore Gender

Abstract

Despite its significance for symbolic representation, we know little about individuals' knowledge of aggregate representation in legislative bodies. Drawing on psychological theories about political knowledge and the survey response, we assess the drivers of public belief and knowledge about gender representation in Congress and in five western state legislatures. Drawing on the 2020 Western States Survey, we consider the determinants of responses to two questions: The first about the percentage of women in Congress and the state legislature, and the second reflecting the accuracy of that estimate. Expressive theories of the survey response suggest that opinions about gender representation will comport with respondents' broader political attitudes; in contrast, cognitive and memory theories imply that respondents' abilities to answer such questions accurately will be a function of cognitive capacity, memory, and attention to politics. The latter dynamic is of particular interest here; at the time of our survey, one of the five states in question (Nevada) had recently become the first state legislature to be majority female. This widely-reported event presents a natural quasi-experiment in which to test these competing theories of beliefs about gender representation in legislatures. Moreover, our findings have implications for a range of phenomena beyond public opinion, including campaigns, media, political ambition, and public policy.

Authors

• Jennie Sweet-Cushman, Chatham University

• Christopher Zorn, Pennsylvania State University