Generational Pessimism and Climate Change

• In Event: Public Opinion, Collective Action, and Climate Change

Abstract

Millennial and Gen Z cohort members are the first to be born into an information environment in which an increasingly bleak climate future is discussed in increasingly likely terms, in contrast to Gen X, Boomers and the Silent Generation. What are the implications of this generational difference on climate change public opinion and political behavior?

We synthesize different studies across psychology, social sciences, and biology to generate three versions of a standard rational actor model of a future-discounting agent whose shadow of the future is endogenous to their age. We then evaluate the empirical implications of these models using two rich sources of data: Climate Change in the American Mind survey and a novel survey experiment, concluding that there is evidence of generational concern that complicates a simple story of myopic self-interest under the rational choice model,

First, we find evidence of a U-shaped pattern in concern and pessimism among members of different generations, suggesting that it is among both the youngest (Gen-Z, Millennials) and oldest cohorts (Silent) where concerns about the future are most pronounced, while the Boomer and Gen X groups are less responsive to the issue of climate change, and the implications of inaction on the welfare of future generations. Second, we do find monotonic relationships in some instances, such as in the belief of global warming itself and the belief of it producing individuals’ personal harm or harm towards plants and animals.

Finally, we find that the media plays an important role as a moderator, but only for the younger generations, potentially due to the combination of the younger generations’ socialization with the media and the older generations’ skepticism toward it. All together, these results indicate that age plays a significant factor in understanding attitudes toward climate change, albeit in a more complex manner. Both young and old cohorts’ public opinion are influenced by different variables, and the relationship between and opinions is not strictly a linear one.

Authors

• Sofia Berrospi, Vanderbilt University

• Guilherme Natan Fasolin, Vanderbilt University

• James Hodgdon Bisbee, Vanderbilt University