The Political Legacy of Violence: Evidence from Peru

• In Event: Coups, Violence, Legitimacy and Trust

Abstract

From the 1980s to the 1990s, Peru was devastated by a brutal civil war between several guerrilla groups, including the Maoist Sendero Luminoso, and the Peruvian State. According to data from the Truth and Reconciliation Committee, this conflict led to the disappearance and deaths of over 69,000 Peruvians. Deaths and disappearances were mainly attributed to the actions of Sendero Luminoso and the Peruvian state, particularly during Alberto Fujimori’s administration (1990-2000). While Fujimori was able to capture Sendero Luminoso’s leader Abimael Guzmán and curtail most of the political violence, the actions of the Peruvian state led to thousands of deaths and disappearances.
This paper leverages district variance in the magnitude of the conflict to evaluate how political violence can shape electoral outcomes over time. Using district-level data on political violence from the Truth and Reconciliation Committee and district-level electoral outcomes from the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), I estimate the effect of political violence of the state and guerrilla groups over vote decisions in post-conflict Peru. Results from this analysis show that the conflict had long-lasting effects on Peruvians' political preferences over time. Deaths and disappearances attributed to the Peruvian State still have an effect on the support of candidates aligned with Alberto Fujimori 15 years after the end of the conflict. These effects are robust to different model specifications and empirical strategies, including a regression discontinuity design.
Existing literature highlights the role of conflict in shaping enduring political divides and cleavages, but empirical evidence on the mechanisms remains scarce. This paper addresses this gap by demonstrating that violence can influence vote choice preferences even decades after a conflict's end.

Author

• Nicolás de la Cerda, Tulane University