Nuclear Proliferation and Counterproliferation: An Experimental Approach

• In Event: Nuclear Politics, Experimental Research, and the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

An overwhelming majority of the South Korean public supports the development of independent nuclear weapons. What are the drivers of this support, and how can this pressure to proliferate be effectively alleviated? While existing studies focus on how nuclear guarantees from allies, the threat of international economic sanctions, and the acquisition of nuclear weapons by an adversary affect a state’s desire to develop nuclear weapons, this paper examines how the behavior of a nuclear adversary can both drive support for nuclear proliferation and undermine counterproliferation efforts. Leveraging original survey experiments on the South Korean public, we show that North Korea’s evolving nuclear doctrine and capabilities can impact public demand for nuclear weapons and the effectiveness of well-known counterproliferation tools. These findings have broader implications not only for nuclear proliferation and counterproliferation theory but for counterproliferation policy and alliance management.

Authors

• Ariel F.W. Petrovics, University of Maryland

• Hyun-Binn Cho, College of New Jersey