Risks to Extended Deterrence and Public Support for Nuclear Armament

• In Event: Nuclear Politics, Experimental Research, and the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

While existing research on the impact of extended deterrence on nuclear proliferation predominantly examines its effects on independent acquisition, this study explores public support for three nuclear armament options: independent nuclear acquisition, nuclear sharing, and nuclear latency. Results of a novel survey experiment on 1209 South Korean citizens show that respondents’ support is highest for the nuclear latency option, followed by nuclear sharing when informed about various risk factors, and different risks to credible extended deterrence have varying effects on the three nuclear armament options. Particularly, high entrapment risks decrease only the demand for nuclear sharing, while weakened commitment to complete denuclearization increases the demand for independent acquisition. Additional analysis suggests that nonproliferation tools, particularly economic sanctions, may only dampen the demand for independent acquisition. Our results indicate that a patron state should focus on fundamentally eliminating nuclear security threats facing a non-nuclear client state rather than adopting short-term non-proliferation tools to substantially dampen the client state’s nuclear proliferation demand.

Authors

• Hye-Sung Kim, Appalachian State University

• Jeheung Ryu, Ewha Womans University

• Taehee Whang, Yonsei University