Millennial Mindsets: A Longitudinal Assessment of Youth Political Participation

• In Event: Democracy's Status in Iberia: From Retrenchment to Reimagination?

Abstract

There is growing comparative evidence that the political behaviour of youth does not mirror that of older generations. Scholars and politicians alike have bemoaned and decried the decline of political participation amongst the youngest cohorts, which have been considered a generation apart when it comes to political attitudes and participation. Research has documented that youth electoral participation is spiralling down (e.g. [1]; [2]), with youngest citizens displaying lower levels of interest and (formal) commitment to party organizations [3]; and lower levels of political literacy ([4], [5]). Portugal is naturally not immune to these general traits.

These traits have echoed the signs of a politically uninterested and disengaged generation, raising concerns over its’ short and long term effects. As to the former, age differences in participation tend to create a vicious cycle of inequalities, since “unequal participation spells unequal influence” to quote the influential work of Lijphart [6: 1]. As to the latter, lower levels of participation raise concerns about the long-term health of representative democracies ([7]; [2]).

In this article, we assess the electoral behaviour of youth in Portugal over the two decade period of 2002-22. In particular, we assess to what extent youth discriminates voting in two key dimensions: first, in terms of voting preferences; second, in terms of turnout, an aspect where youth is often seen as lagging.
To achieve this objective, we adopt two distinct methodological approaches rooted in shared variables found across seven post-election surveys conducted between 2002-22. We initially employ multiple binary logistic regression models to outline patterns in youth political behaviour, scrutinizing whether it evolves with age or if noteworthy generational disparities emerge. This analysis assesses the interplay between life cycle effects and generational effects. Subsequently, utilizing Multiple Correspondence Analysis, we construct perceptual maps elucidating youth political behaviour. This approach seeks to uncover the impact of age groups on behaviour and their interconnectedness with other pertinent covariates influencing political choices.


References:

[1] Sloam, J. (2007). Rebooting Democracy: Youth Participation in Politics in the UK. Parliamentary Affairs, 60(4), 548–567
[2] Sloam J., Henn M. (2019) The Silent Revolution in Youth Political Engagement. In: Youthquake 2017. Palgrave Studies in Young People and Politics. Palgrave Pivot, Cham
[3] Van Biezen, I., Mair, P., & Poguntke, T. (2012). Going, going,... gone? The decline of party membership in contemporary Europe. European journal of political research, 51(1), 24-56
[4] Daniel S.; Rocher; F. (2017) Age, political knowledge and electoral turnout: a case study of Canada, Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 55(1), 41-62
[5] Bastedo, H. (2015) Not ‘one of us’: understanding how non-engaged youth feel about politics and political leadership, Journal of Youth Studies, 18(5), 649-665
[6] Lijphart, A. (1997). Unequal Participation: Democracy’s Unresolved Dilemma Presidential Address, American Political Science Review, 91(01), 1-14
[7] Wattenberg, M. P. (2003). Electoral turnout: The new generation gap. British Elections & Parties Review, 13(1), 159-173

Authors

• Patricia Silva, University of Aveiro

• Carlos Jalali, University of Aveiro, Research Unit on Governance, Competitiveness and Public Policies

• Patricio Soares Costa, University of Minho, ICVS