Drones and Escalation: Public Preference from Conjoint Experiment

• In Event: Drones and Autonomous Warfare

Abstract

This paper investigates the factors influencing the general public's support for drone deployment under various circumstances. Existing scholarship on drones offers insights into multiple pathways, such as the potential for casualties, weighing benefits, political convenience, (possible) damages, and international support and joint coordination. Additionally, the level of control, whether human or machine-driven, can influence public preferences, given the autonomous features of drones with artificial intelligence. To contribute to the existing drone scholarship, this research employs a conjoint experiment to examine situational factors derived from the literature that impact the public's stance on drone deployment. Within these situational factors, the study integrates drones with conventional weapons to explore the extent to which drones may generate escalatory effects when combined with existing weapon systems. Furthermore, the paper dissects drones based on functional distinctions to assess how different drone functions contribute either complementary or revolutionary effects to conflict escalation. The objective is to provide a nuanced and detailed understanding of the escalation ladder specific to drones and to contribute to the broader discussion on whether drones and emerging technologies are revolutionary or evolutionary in the context of conflict escalation.

Authors

• Hyunsu Kim, Seoul National University

• Sanghyun Han, Georgia Institute of Technology