Striking Balance: Security Dilemma and the Space Race

• In Event: Competition and Conflict in Space

Abstract

While recent reports question China’s nuclear strength, the successful 2022 test of a hypersonic weapon by the country intensified. The nationalistic rhetoric in both the U.S. and China increased concerns about the potential preparation for conflict, one that may expand to outer space competition. In this context and given the current changes the international system is undergoing, to what extent are we in an arm space race? Most importantly, is the traditional security dilemma enough to explain this race? While existing legal instruments can prevent any state from arming space, observers fear that increased competition between the U.S. and China could lead to a dramatic shift of the current status quo and the weakening of these tools. This paper seeks to assess whether existing security frameworks can explain growing signaling of hypersonic and nuclear strength and what additional factors may be needed to provide more nuanced explanations. As we talk about militarization of space from both theoretical and prescriptive angles, we endeavor to locate vulnerabilities in existing approaches while offering policy suggestions that are actionable yet forward thinking. Without addressing the theoretical gaps in explaining current security challenges, states will continue to design and create advanced weapons that do not fit into the nuclear category and make space vulnerable to militarization.

Authors

• Nola Haynes, University of Southern California

• Victoria Chonn-Ching, University of Southern California