The Sustainability of the Abraham Accords Model after the Gaza Crisis

• In Event: Strategic Context and Implications of the Current Middle East Conflict

Abstract

The ongoing crisis in Gaza has significantly affected the security and foreign policy of Gulf states, creating new (or amplifying existing) threats and possibilities for them. This is especially true for the two countries which normalized diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 under the Abraham Accords framework – Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. They perceived both domestic and international pressure to show solidarity with Palestinians while some of their interests still incentivised them to not break their relations with Israel.
Besides the sustainability of Bahraini-Israeli and Emirati-Israeli relations, another pressing question raised by the crisis is the possibility of the Abraham Accords model itself, namely the normalization of relations with Israel without any significant progress towards Palestinian statehood. Despite the negative consequences of Israeli military operations in Gaza, Saudi Arabia still indicated in the first three months of the crisis that it is still considering the possibility of normalization with Israel. Nevertheless, in the current situation, any hope regarding significant progress in the Israeli-Palestinian question is severely undermined.
The paper aims to analyse the sustainability and future of the Abraham Accords model from the perspective of Gulf states after the crisis in Gaza. The research utilizes a theoretical concept connected to omni-balancing and foreign policy analysis to identify the key determinant factors in the decision-making process of Gulf states in the case of Israel. The main argument of the paper focuses on the balance between the growing political price of normalization and the security perception & interests of Gulf states, which were not necessarily altered by the war in Gaza. The text will give a critical understanding of the concept of “normalization”, highlighting the different methods of cooperation between state and non-state actors in the region.

Author

• Máté Szalai, Corvinus University of Budapest