Battle for Reality: An Empirical Analysis of Disinformation Impact

• In Event: Chinese and Russian Information Warfare

Abstract

This paper presents initial findings from the first year of a research project on the impact that Russian and Chinese disinformation narratives have on US and allied publics' military preferences. To date, disinformation research provides big data analysis of the speed and direction with which various messages spread throughout the information environment. Yet, such studies cannot delineate the exposure to a given message from its capacity to elicit genuine changes in views; and, as a result, scholars often conflate dissemination of information with its impact. Over the past year, we addressed this gap in understanding about disinformation by deploying a cross-national set of experiments with a conjoint research design on publics in the US, Europe (UK, Germany, France, Poland, Estonia), and Asia (Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and Australia) in order to generate upwards of 105,000 unique data observations. The study examined how multiple combinations of 7 Russian or Chinese narratives affect publics' support for specific types of military actions (basing US troops/forces, overflight corridors, troop movements across borders), all of which are critical for the West to effectively balance Russia and China during competition and crisis. Our paper will present initial data on the framing effect of various narratives and lay out the next steps in the multi-year project.

Authors

• Zachary Zwald, University of Houston

• Jeffrey D. Berejikian, University of Georgia