Gender Stereotypes and Women's Primary Success across District Competitiveness

• In Event: Gender, Race, and Sexuality in Elections

Abstract

I argue that the race, gender, and partisan identity of primary candidates combine in a way that places certain women at a comparative (dis)advantage under conditions where heightened partisan competition looms in the general election. Because primary races in safe districts encourage ideological extremism in candidates and because women are stereotyped as more liberal than their male counterparts, I expect Democratic and Republican women primary candidates to outperform men in safe Democratic districts and underperform men in safe Republican districts (relative to districts where competitive general elections are expected). However, in primary elections where the general election is expected to be competitive, such gender-ideology stereotypes should boost (hinder) the primary election prospects of Republican (Democratic) women candidates who may be seen as more (less) aligned with general election voters in swing districts. Using a new dataset of all primary election candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives from 2006 to 2020, I examine Republican and Democratic women's primary election prospects in competitive general contexts and whether they both run and win elections in safe Republican (Democratic) districts at relatively lower (higher) rates than men. Counter to my expectations, my findings suggest that Democratic white women candidates are more likely to run and win in both competitive and safe Republican districts. On the other hand, though they are increasingly running in competitive districts, Republican women candidates do not receive an electoral boost in primaries where the general election is expected to be competitive.

Author

• Alexandra Snipes, Emory University