Tipping the Balance: How Drones Are Changing the Offensive/Defensive Balance

• In Event: Drones and Autonomous Warfare

Abstract

The advent of large-scale drone warfare in the Ukrainian and the Israeli incursion into Gaza presages an oscillation in the Offensive/Defensive Balance. In future conflicts drones, (land, sea and air) will provide an advantage to either the offense or defense depending on the level and type of drone use. For example, strategic level reconnaissance drones may allow defenders time to repel an attack while at the micro-tactical level a drone may fly from one building to another in an urban setting allowing offensive units to move unhindered or to destroy opponents with little if any exposure. Suicide drones have become the “go to” weapon system for some situations. To explore the ability of the drone to affect the offensive/defensive balance this work builds a synthetic multi-level model of warfare exploring how drones affect the offensive/defensive balance at each level. Case studies of various drone enhanced conflicts will highlight how advantages to either the offense or defense can oscillate and why the rate of oscillation and causes of oscillation can determine the victor. This research contributes to the extant literature by examining the impact of drones on warfare and how drones will change military doctrine at all levels and domains of military engagement.

Authors

• Xerxes Zeno Herrington, United States Navy

• Joseph J. St. Marie, University of Southern Mississippi