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Successful secessionist movements typically manage to win overwhelming majorities in referendums on independence. One cluster of cases, however, presents a persistent exception to this trend – the secessionist regions in wealthy market societies of the global North: Scotland, Quebec, and Catalonia. Here, organizationally powerful and electorally successful secessionist movements have convinced only about a half of the population to back independence. This paper asks why independence fails to attract a clear majority of the population in these three jurisdictions.
The study is premised on the idea that rising nationalism can only be contained by an equally powerful social force. In Scotland, Quebec, and Catalonia, that force has been private big business. In these cases, private enterprise helped prevent the homogenization of regional societies in favour of independence by 1) opposing secession through direct participation in public debates; 2) reducing the scope of arguments available to secessionist parties; and 3) by funding counter-secessionist political parties and non-partisan organizations. The presence of private business prevented the establishment of secessionist political hegemony among the electorate. By contrast, in regions without private big business, debates on independence have been far less balanced, with secessionist actors dominating. The study demonstrates this in two carefully chosen counterfactuals – Slovenia and Western Australia. During secessionist crises, as the political ties fray and previously integrated party systems start to come apart, the private sector steps in to provide a crucial integrative function.