Nurturing Independentism: Movements and Parties in Secessionist Contexts

• In Event: Ethno-nationalist Preferences and Identities

Abstract

This paper analyzes separatist movements’ ability to mobilize voters in favor of independence in contexts with an active secession conflict. I address this question in Catalonia between 2012 and 2017, during the climax of the secession conflict with Spain, and focus on the Assemblea Nacional Catalana (Assemblea), a pro-independence organization with over 500 branches across Catalonia. Controlling for support to pro-independence parties in previous elections and accounting for the celebration of unofficial referendums in Catalan municipalities between 2009 and 2011, I exploit differences in the timing of the branches’ creation to assess, first, the determinants behind its creation and, second, whether and how the branches influenced voting patterns during this period. The results show that the branches did not change turnout patterns. Still, they did have a small but significant impact on support for the left-wing pro-independence party (ERC) in 2012 and the total pro-independence vote in 2015. The chapter engages with a growing body of literature investigating social movements' outcomes on individuals’ political attitudes and behavior. It also speaks to recent work that examines the intersection of movements and political parties and the dynamics of cooperation and conflict between them.

Author

• Maria Jose Hierro, Yale University