Raising the (Partisan) Stakes: How Racial Threat Influences Partisan Extremity

• In Event: Poster Session: Polarization, Cues and Information, and Public Opinion

Abstract

How do perceptions of racial threat influence individual-level partisan affect? I argue that findings from extant literature connecting race and partisanship in American politics suggest that racial group threat should also play a role in how partisans feel about other partisans. The close connection between race and partisanship within the minds of voters creates a scenario in which racial group threats might also interact with how voters appraise partisan group threats. I propose that increased perceptions of racial threat can raise the stakes of partisan conflict for voters concerned about the status of their racial group, thereby incentivizing individual-level partisan extremity among those whose party is typically associated with their racial group. Through observational and experimental data, I demonstrate that changing perceptions of racial threat can result in corresponding shifts in partisan extremity. To evaluate the role of racial threat as a mechanism for affective polarization, I use survey data from the 2012 – 2020 ANES to determine how perceived racial discrimination correlates with partisan affect among Black, Latino, and white respondents. I find evidence for the role of party messaging on race in conditioning the effects of perceived racial discrimination on partisan sentiment. Through a survey experiment, I also demonstrate that increasing and decreasing perceptions of racial group threat result in corresponding shifts in partisan extremity among white Republicans and Latino Democrats, the two groups I expect to shift their partisan extremity most when faced with changes in threat towards their racial groups. My findings indicate that partisan extremity is at its strongest when a partisan perceives some level of racial group status threat and also perceives the opposing party as hostile to their racial group's interests. Results suggest that researchers should consider the influence of race and racial politics in furthering the mass affective polarization of the American public. Worth additional consideration is how party messaging might interact with non-partisan group identities to produce more extreme partisan responses.

Author

• Raquel Centeno, University of Southern California