Logistical Failure as Latent Partisan Bias: Election Admin & Outcomes in Nigeria

• In Event: Elections and Politics in Africa

Abstract

Trust in Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declined, reducing voter turnout and complicating election administration (Mbaegbu & Amoah Twum, 2023). Party misbehavior influences such attitudes and behaviors (LeVan 2019), but less is known about the effects of election maladministration. This is surprising since Election Observation Missions frequently acknowledge logistical challenges, even as they avoid asserting a connection between such problems and election outcomes (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2023; International Republican Institute/National Democratic Institute, 2023). In our study of Nigeria's 2023 elections, we harness a unique dataset of approximately 5,000 independent observer reports. We identify types of logistical problems attributable to human or technological error such as delayed material deliveries, absent electoral officials or failed voter identification; such problems trigger contingency procedures that slow down voting and stimulate doubts about results. Next, a “latent partisan bias” hypothesis posits that delays benefitted the ruling party at the state level in elections with narrow margins of victory. Controlling for a variety of factors and incorporating qualitative evidence from WhatsApp messages from observers, we find that administrative problems were statistically more likely than technological problems to benefit the incumbent party. Our findings help identify when and where logistical complications were more likely to impact the actual results.

Authors

• Nichole Grossman, American University

• Carl LeVan, American University

• Kelechi Amakoh, Michigan State University