Democracy on the Line? Political Legitimacy and Military Coups in Africa

• In Event: Coups, Violence, Legitimacy and Trust

Abstract

Recent coups in West and North Africa raise a question about the future of democracy in Africa. This paper investigates the influence of public opinion on support for military coups. Existing literature has focused on structural factors and triggers for military coups. I examine whether dissatisfaction with the executive and trust in the military influence support for military rule in Africa. Structural factors and triggers for coups can be reflected in public opinion simultaneously, especially on issues of political legitimacy and political crisis. I investigate trust in the military, perceived executive violation of the law, corruption in the president's office, and the president's performance. These factors affect support for military rule, but an overwhelming majority of people across African countries reject military rule and support democracy. This paradox suggests that people support military coups, hoping for a democratic transition. Therefore, instead of imposing sanctions, measures to alleviate coups should also center on increasing accountability through democratic institutions. The AU can adopt conditions stipulated in the Lome Declaration and Democracy Charter against the illegal change of government and foster democratic institutions to mitigate military coups.

Author

• William Hatungimana, University of Oregon