Does Affective Polarization Fuel Democratic Backsliding? Evidence from Europe

• In Event: Identity and Polarization in Europe

Abstract

There is a growing amount of evidence that citizens across Western democracies are increasingly hostile towards each other, engaging in stereotyping and social avoidance of those with different views. While this affective polarization is viewed as a major threat to liberal democracies, its consequences remain largely unexplored. Moreover, previous research has predominantly concentrated on parties and party affiliations as the main source of affective polarization, even if recent crises have revealed that opposing views on specific issues can also create powerful lines of conflict. My study addresses these gaps by analysing the impact of issue-based affective polarization on democratic attitudes. Drawing on two waves of original survey data collected in fall 2022 and spring 2024 in ten EU member states (Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden) I propose and operationalize a concept of issue-based affective polarization, measuring preferences and aversions between groups defined by their opinions on specific policy issues, such as migration, climate change, social security, gender equality, and the war in Ukraine. Using multivariate statistical modelling, I test and compare the impact of different forms of issue-based affective polarization on people's attitudes towards democracy, including trust in democratic institutions, populism, and the acceptance of violence as a means of politics. Furthermore, I explore the interaction effects of people’s political positions and their ideological orientation along a left-right scale. With this, the study contributes to both an improved methodology for measuring affective polarization and a better understanding of its consequences for democratic societies, offering a comparative perspective on different European countries.

Author

• Maik Herold, Dresden University of Technology