Geopolitics and Democracy Promotion: External Factors in Democratic Backsliding

• In Event: Poster Session: Public Policy & Society, Extremism, and Democratic Backsliding
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Society, Extremism, and Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

Due to the rise of China and the renewed aggression of Russia in Ukraine, the issue of geopolitics has resurfaced in the discussion of international security. Consequently, the liberal international order built by the Western democracies increasingly faces the challenge of demise. Although many non-democracies are enjoying the benefit of the liberal international order, the promotion and preservation of democracy have been an inseparable part of the neoliberal project. Various regions and nations globally are currently undergoing a recession in democratic liberalism due to inefficient government, social and economic inequality, and other long-term challenges. Besides the domestic and historical factors, systemic dynamics play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of democratic governance. This paper examines the international dimension of democratic backsliding, exploring how geopolitical factors in the US grand strategy contribute to the erosion of democracy in various regions of the world. Previously democracy promotion was positively linked to the geopolitical interest of the US. Even today, the Biden administration has made 'democracy versus autocracy' a primary theme, with the US-China conflict at its heart. Unlike Trump, who saw the US-China conflict as simply a zero-sum economic balance, Biden has returned to the China problem in reaction to rising security concerns. However, the administration faces formidable difficulties and contradictions in trying to counter authoritarianism and defend freedom in Asia. The conventional wisdom suggests that the USA’s pursuit of geopolitical interest is positively linked to democracy promotion and promotion of democracy in other regions is necessary for the sustainability of the US-led global order. Contrary to that, we argue that the rise of the anti-democratic alliance of China and Russia is turning this relationship into a negative one whereby the geopolitical interests of the USA gradually require a subtle separation from its democratic overenthusiasm abroad. Using the qualitative method of process tracing the paper first identifies the evidence of democratic backsliding in different parts of the world. Four independent variables or causal mechanisms and processes are documented that can explain how geopolitics is responsible for the changes and the evidence is presented. First, due to the rise of China as a major economic power and its newly created dominance of multilateral forums like the AIIB, BRI, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, countries, driven by development needs, are significantly drawn towards Chinese financial flows. The wider economic and institutional benefits of the USA's deep engagement as the leader of the liberal order are enormous. If the USA pushes countries like India, Bangladesh, Thailand, or even Japan for democratic reforms the relationship could go off the rails and the US would lose its influence in the region. Hence, keeping democracy promotion and neoliberal integration together as a project will be nothing but misguided realism. Second, in the emerging geopolitical scenario, in specific regions, such as the Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe, the U.S. faces regional security concerns driven by assertive actions from China and Russia. Strengthening the military is seen as crucial for deterrence and maintaining stability in these regions against the advanced technologies and cyber capabilities of China and Russia. Therefore, geopolitics requires the US to focus on militarization rather than investing in democratic consolidation. Third, Failed democracy promotion efforts in the Middle East and post-soviet spaces reinforce alliances with authoritarian regimes. States witnessing the difficulties of democratic transitions tend to align themselves with authoritarian actors who are perceived as providing stability and order. Therefore, democracy promotion will be counterproductive by generating more antagonist forces for the US. Fourth, although many non-western democracies are part of the liberal international order, the USA does not receive enough support from old and emerging non-western democracies which makes it tougher to ensure the sustainability of democracy abroad and causes geopolitical sunk cost. The puzzle for US foreign policy today is whether to compromise its hegemonic position in the global order or to stick to its ideological values. Through the analysis of evidence from different cases, the paper argues that the U.S. should pursue deep engagement, not as a choice, but as a necessity amid the gradually changing global order, and should prioritize the military and economic integration aspect of geopolitics rather than the ideological. The paper emphasizes the opinion that to sustain America’s supremacy a positive connection needs to be drawn and rationalized between national interest and international engagement and the policy of democracy promotion needs to be decoupled from such engagement for a certain period.

Authors

• Muhammad Mustahsin Adnan, BRAC

• Umme Salma Tarin, University of Delaware