Losers' Consent in Polarized Elections: Experimental and Panel Evidence

• In Event: Shaping Support for Democratic Norms

Abstract

The aim of this study is to better understand how electoral losers react to electoral results as a building block of democratic theory, wherein consent is expected from those who lose elections. The interest in understanding how voters respond to electoral outcomes in polarized settings has significantly heightened in recent years due to political events such as the Capitol assault in the US, Bolsonaro supporters' protests in Brazil, and the increasingly frequent protests in the streets by election losers in democracies.

This research pursues two objectives. Firstly, it seeks a better understanding of the concept of losers' consent. We consider that the existing literature has not adequately addressed the concept. We propose that losers' consent should go beyond the vague measure of “satisfaction with democracy”, and it must be understood as the recognition of the legitimacy of the electoral results and the elected government. Second, we aim to analyze the factors behind electoral defeats eroding citizens' consent to be governed, with a particular focus on the effects of polarization, and the attitudinal consequences of losing elections, especially whether it propels illiberal attitudes.

This study focuses on the case of Spain, a country with high levels of political polarization that experienced relevant street protests during the government formation process in November 2023. Our analysis relies on three empirical strategies: the execution of an online survey panel to assess the evolution of losers' consent throughout the electoral year (from April to November), a vignette experiment, and a set of conjoint experiments.

Authors

• Lluis Orriols, University Carlos III of Madrid

• Ignacio Jurado, Carlos III University