The Effect of Partisan Primaries on the Composition of the Electorate

• In Event: Threats and Reforms to U.S. Elections

Abstract

What are the representative and participatory consequences of closed partisan primaries? Does opening primaries up improve the representation of the electorate? Utilizing nearly a decade of nationwide voter file data—consisting of billions of observations—along with census-based demographic imputation and modern causal inference techniques, I test the degree to which closed primary systems contribute to demographic and political inequalities in the voters who participate in U.S. elections and whether opening primaries up to independents improves voter representation and participation. This research sheds light on the role that primaries play in shaping who has democratic voice in America and may provide insight into reducing longstanding disparities in participation and representation.

Author

• Joshua Ferrer, UCLA