The Downstream Effects of Voter ID Laws: RIDs in Texas

• In Event: Threats and Reforms to U.S. Elections

Abstract

Most existing research testing the effects of restrictive voting laws focuses on a single election. Whether using administrative records of ballot rejections, surveying voters who did not cast a ballot about the reasons why, these studies largely explore the contemporaneous effects of costs to casting a ballot. This might, however, overlook the broader effects: we know from the literature that both voting is a habit; if a voter is unable to successfully cast a ballot, it might reduce their subsequent turnout. Similarly, external efficacy is linked with turnout and depends on feeling like one’s voice matters to the government; disenfranchisement might undermine that and reduce future participation. Put differently: studying the turnout effects of a policy in time t=1 might miss the “downstream” effects attributable to disenfranchisement in time t<1. If these voters do not try to vote in subsequent elections, they will go unreported in administrative data.

To test the downstream effects of a (would-be) disenfranchisement we leverage administrative records from Texas. Voters who try to vote without a proper voter ID are required to sign a Reasonable Impediment Declaration (RIDs). We leverage RIDs from 2016, 2018, and 2020 to test whether showing up at the polls with inadequate ID reduces voters’ future participation.

Authors

• Bernard L. Fraga, Emory University

• Kevin Thomas Morris, Brennan Center for Justice

• Michael G. Miller, Barnard College