Toward Praetorian-Led Electoral Authoritarianism? Coups in Francophone Africa

• In Event: Learning from Global Democratic Challenges and Innovations Mini-Conference III: Democracy in Francophone Africa: Enduring Challenges and Paths Forward

Abstract

The wave of military coups between 2020 and 2023 in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, Chad, and Gabon has raised longstanding questions about the role of the military in fragile democratization processes. Drawing on descriptive statistical data, multimethod research techniques including csqca and process-tracing, and several rounds of field research in all six countries, the paper compares the causes and the subsequent political consequences of these military interventions. It is interested in the ability of the six juntas to influence the post-coup elections in favor of their preferred presidential candidate. The capacity of the juntas to do so varies significantly across the six countries. The extent to which the motives of the junta overlap with the grievances of the military-at large is the most decisive factor in accounting for this variation. Other variables such as the relationship between the junta and civilian domestic elites or the extent to which Western countries enjoy economic as well as diplomatic leverage matter comparatively little.

Author

• Sebastian Elischer, University of Florida