Third-Party Leader Statements and Strategies in Intrastate Armed Conflicts

• In Event: Third Parties, Military Intervention, and Civil Conflict

Abstract

How do verbal clues by third parties impact the strategies of the parties in an intrastate conflict? Although third-party interventions have been studied extensively, the verbal clues by third parties on civil conflicts have been overlooked since verbal indications are perceived as cheap signals. However, verbal support or threat by other countries can serve as an effective tool that can change the strategies and tactics of parties in an intrastate conflict. Based on the importance of verbal indications by third parties on intervention, this study will introduce a new measure, and examine how third-party leader statements impact the course of events in civil conflicts. This study particularly focuses on how the statements of the United States and Germany impacted both the state and non-state actor behaviors in the armed struggle of Turkey with PKK between 2010-2019. Findings will contribute to the third-party intervention literature since the introduction of this new variable measures the perception of third parties in a more nuanced way.

Author

• Melike Ayse Kocacik Senol