The Foreign Sponsor’s Dilemma

• In Event: Models of International Security and Foreign Policy

Abstract

How does a foreign sponsor manage its dilemma in supporting a rebel group with no common interests? Support for rebel groups fighting one's international enemy can weaken the rival regime. But it also runs the risk of helping rebels win the civil war and come back at the international bargaining table with consolidated power. This paper develops a formal model to show that the sponsor comes to aid rebels on the brink of collapse and withdraws support when rebels are about to win to keep the rival state in constant domestic quagmire. Existing literature often regards increased conflict duration as a by-product of third-party intervention. By contrast, this paper suggests that foreign actors have strategic incentives to intervene in ways that prolong the civil war.

Author

• Xiaoyan Qiu, Washington University in St. Louis