Opposition during Crises: How Elite Conflict Shapes the Rally-Round-the-Flag Effect

• In Event: Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

Abstract

This study examines the dynamics of opposition party behavior during international conflict. While previous research on the rally ‘round the flag effect has focused on the consequences for the government, limited attention has been given to opposition parties. When do opposition leaders openly criticize the incumbent during times of crisis, and what effect does this type of elite divisiveness have on public support for the government? I utilize original data to investigate the key factors that motivate opposition leaders to speak out against the government’s foreign policy during critical periods. Empirical findings suggest that elite conflict during international conflict is likely when the opposition observes a departure from the status quo on foreign policy. Furthermore, such elite divisiveness has a generally negative effect on public support for the incumbent, decreasing the magnitude of the rally effect. My findings contribute to the ongoing discourse on the role of domestic political actors, including both elites and the public, in influencing interstate conflict dynamics by constraining and informing foreign policy.

Author

• Ellin Chung, University of Maryland, College Park