Who Votes? Influences on Latino Subgroup Turnout since 1980

• In Event: Immigrant Political Behavior

Abstract

We analyze influences on turnout among Latino subgroups in presidential elections between 1980-2020. We control for a variety of factors including socio-economic demographics and structural variables.
Latinos are the largest growing minority group in the United States. This paper will examine influences on turnout in presidential elections among Latino subgroups. Not all Latinos behave the same way politically. Previous research has shown that education, income, age, and a feeling of linked fate all have an impact on Latino subgroup turnout.
We want to understand the importance of ethnic identity, for Latino respondents in terms of political behavior generally and voting. For our research, we utilized the Current Population Survey and state level structural variables. The CPS collects socio-economic data on citizens and has a focus on voter registration, voter turnout, and candidate selection. In addition to the individual level data discussed above, we have included several structural variables to explore our research questions. These structural variables include state level and election related factors.
We present the results of both probit models and dprobit models. We also present the results of numerous goodness of fit tests that measure how well our models fit the data over time. Both sets of models are iterative, which means that they will continually run until they converge on the best solution, or the solution where the log likelihood is maximized.

Authors

• Beth Ginsberg, University of Connecticut

• Sarah Van Perez, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley